Japan Economic Trend Research: Industry-specific Assessments of Small and Medium-sized Businesses
Take advantage of free access to our monthly Economic Trend Research reports. You’ll get updates on statistical survey results, by industry, based on data from over 20,000 small and medium-sized companies in Japan.

Japan Economic Trend Research June 2017

July 6, 2017

Summer bonuses stimulate personal consumption, recovery continues

- Expansion of capital investment and expectations for Tokyo Olympic special demand -

(Companies researched: 23,927 ; Valid responses: 10,045; Response rate: 42.0%; Survey start date: May 2002)

 

< Trend for June 2017: Recovery continues >

The economic diffusion index (DI) for June rose 0.3 points over last month to 46.8, marking the 5th straight month of relatively flat growth. Domestic business continues to recover due to stimulated personal consumption thanks to summer bonuses aided by robust automotive-related production and expanded IT demand.

 

< Forecast: Recovery trend to continue >

Although future domestic business will be affected by uncertainty in the situation overseas, the recovery trend is expected to continue thanks to expanded capital investment spurred by favorable export and production and Tokyo Olympic special demand.

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research May 2017

June 5, 2017

Economic recovery halted, with a challenge in labor shortage

- Expectation for continuing recovery, pushed up by exports and capital investment -

 

< Overview of May 2017: Recovery stopped >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in May was 46.5, unchanged from the previous month.  Construction-related businesses, such as Tokyo 2020, and demand for reconstruction were strong, but an increased burden due to a labor shortage was seen, and the recovery in the domestic economy, which had been ongoing lately, halted.

 

< Future Outlook: Recovery trend continues >

The recovery trend in the domestic economy is expected to continue, pushed up by exports and capital investment, although overseas risk is a cause for concern.

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research April 2017

May 10, 2017

Improvement for three consecutive months, supported by strong production and exports

- Expectation for a full-scale recovery of personal consumption -

 

 

< Overview of April 2017: Recovery continues >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in April was 46.5, up 0.3 points from the previous month, and improvement for three consecutive months. The domestic economy continued to show recovery, supported by improvement in “manufacturing” thanks to strong production and exports.

 

< Future Outlook: Mild recovery continues >

Mild recovery in economic conditions is expected to continue, tailwinded by continuing strong production and exports, and an increase in public works, amid an expected full-scale recovery of personal consumption.

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research March 2017

April 7, 2017

Recovery tailwinded by automobile manufacture and labor shortage measures

 

- Increased capital investment demand intended for labor-saving -

 

 

< Overview of March 2017: Recovery trend continue >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in March was 46.2, up 0.8 points from the previous month, and an improvement for two consecutive months. The domestic economy continued to show recovery trends, tailwinded by favorable automobile-related performance and increased demand in labor shortage measures.

 

< Future Outlook: Mild recovery continues >

Mild recovery in economic conditions is expected to continue against the background of strong export and full-scale construction investment for the Olympics

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research February 2017

March 7, 2017

Improved manufacturing industry performance

creates a boost in domestic economy

- Mild recovery continues despite being exposed to overseas risks -

 

< Overview of February 2017: Upward trend continues >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in February 2017 was 45.4, up 0.2 points from the previous month, and improved for the first time in two months. The domestic economy continued to recover due to an improvement in the performance of the manufacturing industry brought about by the strong performance of automotive and machinery manufacturing businesses.

 

< Future Outlook: Mild recovery continues >

Gradual recovery of economic conditions is expected to continue, despite having a large exposure to overseas risks, including those associated with the U.S.

 

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Japan Economic Trends Research January 2017

February 3, 2017

Trump shock holds up recovery trends

 

- US policy intensifies feeling of uncertainty about the world economy -

 

< Overview of January 2017: Break in the recovery trend >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in January was 45.2, down 0.2 points from the previous month, and worsened for the first time in five months. Since an increase in the cost of fuel and unstable weather put downward pressure on the domestic economy, and a negative effect that originated in the U.S. was also added, recovery trends were held up.

 

< Future outlook: Gradual recovery continues >

Gradual recovery of economic conditions is expected to continue, but it will be necessary to pay close attention to U.S. policy.

 

By industry:  Four industries have worsened, with a heavy cost burden.

By size: All sizes have worsened for the first time in seven months, although only slightly.

 By region: Out of the ten regions, six have worsened due to the negative influence of grounds for concern that originated in the U.S., in addition to heavy snow.

 

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Japanese Economic Trend research December 2016

January 11, 2017

Domestic economy improves widely,

upward trends continue

- Personal consumption trends in the domestic economy

from now on are key -

 

(Companies Researched: 23,804 ; Valid responses: 10,033 ; Response rate: 42.1%; Survey Start Date: May 2002)

 

< Overview of December 2016: Upward trend >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in December was 45.4, up 1.3 points from the previous month, and an improvement for four consecutive months. This four consecutive month improvement is for the first time in two years and eleven months, since January 2014 when improvement has continued over a period of seven months.

In the domestic economy, there was steady domestic and foreign demand along with good performance in the year-end shopping season at the same time, and upward trends continued.

 

< Future outlook: Mild recovery continues >

Personal consumption trends in the domestic economy from now on are key. Although there are concerns such as an increase in the cost burden associated with a lack of human resourc

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Japan Economic Trend Research December 2016

December 22, 2016

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< Overview of November 2016: Upward trend >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in November was 44.1, up 0.8 points from the previous month, and an improvement for three consecutive months. The US presidential election shock reversed in a short period, and the weakening yen/higher stock prices advanced. Housing starts and automobile production are also showing strong growth, and the domestic economy is improving, with improvements in both rural areas and big cities.

< Future outlook: Gradual upward trend >

Economic conditions expect to see changes in a gradual upward trend, with improvements in employment and income environments as well as items like public investment.

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Japan Economic Trend Research November 2016

December 5, 2016

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< Overview of November 2016: Upward trend >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in November was 44.1, up 0.8 points from the previous month, and an improvement for three consecutive months. The US presidential election shock reversed in a short period, and the weakening yen/higher stock prices advanced. Housing starts and automobile production are also showing strong growth, and the domestic economy is improving, with improvements in both rural areas and big cities.

< Future outlook: Gradual upward trend >

Economic conditions expect to see changes in a gradual upward trend, with improvements in employment and income environments as well as items like public investment.

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research October 2016

December 5, 2016

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< Overview of October 2016: Continues to improve >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in October was 43.3, up 0.4 point from the previous month, and an improvement for two consecutive months.  Two straight months of improvement is the first time in a year and seven months, since March 2015.  The domestic economy has picked up for two consecutive months, with continuously active construction-related demand along with a recovery of automobile production.

< Future Outlook: Moderate upswing >

Economic conditions will pick up moderately as a result of improvement in employment and income environments, along with unstable trends for the time being.

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Japan Economic Trend Research September 2016

October 18, 2016

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< Overview of September 2016: Recovery >

The economic diffusion index (DI) in September was 42.9, up 0.6 point from the previous month, and the first improvement in two months. In addition to having recovered from the previous month’s drop due to unsettled weather, the overall economy was pushed up by the Construction-related industry because of increasing public works. The domestic economy has been back on track, supported by public demand and housing investment.

 

< Future Outlook: Remains unchanged >

Economic conditions will remain unchanged for the time being, although signs of a gradual uptick in the economy have emerged.

 

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research August 2016

September 15, 2016

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[Overview of August 2016: Economy at a standstill]

The economic diffusion index (DI) in August was 42.3, down 0.1 point from the previous month, and worsened for the first time in two months.  While increasing public works and travel demand acted as upward factors, unsettled weather affected various regions and some businesses.  Positive and negative factors are mixed in the domestic economy, and the economy remains at a standstill.

 

[Future Outlook: Keep on leveling off]

Economic conditions will keep on leveling off, while the financial market has become susceptible to risks from overseas.

 

 

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research July 2016

August 17, 2016

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[Overview of July 2016: Domestic economy stopped worsening ]

The economic diffusion index (DI) in July was 42.4, up 1.1 points from the previous month. This reflects an improvement for the first time in four months. The impact of negative shocks, such as the Kumamoto Earthquake, falsified fuel economy data, the British decision to leave the EU, moderated, and Japan’s economy stopped worsening.

 

[Future Outlook: Keep on leveling off, while continuing to seesaw]

Economic conditions will keep on leveling off while continuing to seesaw. An expansionary economic policy is a positive factor, but on the other hand, there are many concerns in overseas economies.

 

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research June 2016

August 10, 2016

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 [Overview of June 2016: Shift to decline]

The economic diffusion index (DI) in June was 41.3, down 0.5 points from the previous month. This reflects a declining trend for three consecutive months. Japan’s economy has been on a downward trend due to a spate of domestic and overseas bad news, such as the Kumamoto Earthquake, falsified fuel economy data, and the Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

 

[Future Outlook: Remain with an enhanced downward trend]

Brexit is likely to continue to shock for a while, and economic conditions are expected to remain with an enhanced downward trend amid concern over the impact on corporate performances.

 

 

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Japan Economic Trend Research August 2014

September 11, 2014

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< Overview of August 2014: The Japanese economy becoming stagnant >

The Economic DI in August 2014 stood at 46.2, down 0.7 points from the previous month, worsening for the first time in 3 months.

The adverse weather, such as the typhoons and the heavy rainfalls that caused human and material damage to West Japan in August, had an adverse impact on the agriculture, forestry, fishery, and service-related industries.

The Japanese economy is experiencing stagnation with the adverse weather coming up while the decline in export and the increase in production costs are becoming downward factors for the Japanese economy.

 

< Future Outlook: The upward economic momentum will weaken >

While the Japanese economy is experiencing an upward trend, the downward economic risks are also manifesting. Since the economic forecast peaked in March, its upward rise has been slowing down. Thus the economic upward momentum is expected to weaken.

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Japan Economic Trend Research July 2014

September 11, 2014

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< Overview of July 2014: Repercussions from consumption tax increase hitting the bottom >

The Economic DI in July 2014 stood at 46.9, up 0.4 points from the previous month, improving for two months in a row.

While investments into infrastructure and capitals related to energy-conservation revitalized in July, sales of living necessities stagnated.

Despite the repercussions from consumption tax increase hitting the bottom, the momentum of business upturn turned out to be a slow one.

 

< Future Outlook: Economy will gradually improve >

The Japanese economy is predicted to gradually improve, with individual consumption and capital investments both driving the economy despite harboring the risk of real wages decreasing.

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Japan Economic Trend Research June 2014

July 18, 2014

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< Overview of June 2014: Signs of economic regrowth present >

The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0-100, 50 points is the threshold of assessment) in June 2014 stood at 46.5, up 0.3 points from the previous month, improving for the first time in three months. The impact from the consumption tax increase in April had eased down.

Despite delays in recovery are seen in certain industries and regions, the Japanese economy is showing signs of regrowth with the impact from consumption tax increase easing off.

 

< Future Outlook: Economy will gradually improve >

Although there are concerns that the impact from the consumption tax increase may be prolonged in certain industries, the Japanese economy is expected to gradually improve in conjunction with the recovery of individual consumption.

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Japan Economic Trend Research May 2014

July 18, 2014

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< Overview of May 2014: The impact from the consumption tax increase continues >

The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0-100, 50 points is the threshold of assessment) in May 2014 stood at 46.2, down 0.6 points from the previous month, worsening for the second month in a row. The impact from the negative repercussion from the last-minute demand before last month’s consumption tax increase remained in many industries.

The Japanese economy was not able to break away from the impact from the consumption tax increase, despite showing improvements in some industries (i.e., retail of shopping goods).

 

< Future Outlook: Economy will gradually improve >

Although the impact from the consumption tax increase may continue, the Japanese economy is predicted to gradually improve.

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Japan Economic Trend Research April 2014

July 18, 2014

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<Overview of April 2014: The biggest drop on record due to the consumption tax increase>

The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0-100, 50 points is the threshold of assessment) in April 2014 stood at 46.8, down 4.2 points from the previous month. This the biggest drop in history, steeper than in December 2008 (4.1 points down), which saw the acceleration of economic downturn precipitated by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

In addition to the negative repercussion from the consumption tax increase, the intensification of burdens such as the environment tax caused the Japanese economy to sag in a wide range of areas, regardless of the industries, company sizes, and regions.

 

< Future Outlook: Gradual rise from the shock caused by the tax increase >

It is predicted that the recovery from the negative repercussion from the consumption tax raise will be delayed until around September. However, it is assumed that the Japanese economy will regain its stability in about six months and will gradually rise.

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Japan Economic Trend Research March 2014

April 4, 2014

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< Overview of March 2014: thelast-minute pre-consumption tax increase demand pushes the Japanese economy upward >

The Economic DI (Economic DI: 0-100, 50 points is the threshold of assessment) in March 2014 stood at 51.0, up 1.4 points from the previous month, going over the 50-level – the threshold of assessment – for the first time since starting the survey.

The Japanese economy experienced its last minute demand reaching its peak with the consumption tax increasing looming ahead, being pushed greatly mainly by the retail and transport/warehouse industries.

 

< Future Outlook: Gradual rise after the temporary slump following the consumer tax increase >

The Japanese economy is predicted to sustain its gradual upward trend despite experiencing a temporary slump after the consumption tax increase.

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